As shown in the citation, the market began to plummet before the US market opened yesterday, falling to a pricing low of around 78000 after three interest rate cuts this year In my personal strategy, I believe that the most important thing is to observe the market's expectations for a bailout style interest rate cut (September 2024 is a precautionary interest rate cut, and 2025 is likely to only see a bailout style interest rate cut). Currently, the expectation of four interest rate cuts this year on FedWatch has officially exceeded two times and is gradually catching up with three times. The expectation of a recession is still continuing to rise. BTC spot orders are concentrated in the 74000~7700, 200 EMA&SMA positions, with resistance at 83000~85000 and a large number of sell walls. From the trend of open orders and moving averages, it is still a market dominated by bears. ① If the subsequent data further weakens and triggers a risk off (with a focus on layoff rates, PMI, GDP), making the possibility of four interest rate cuts within the year the highest, I personally believe that the expectation of a recession within the year and the pricing of interest rate cuts are already quite aggressive. The further strengthening of recession expectations will lead to a drop below the pricing low of 78000, but I don't think the time point for the Fed pivot to adjust expectations is far away. ② If the expectation of interest rate cuts remains at the current level of 3>4>2, choose to continue with a stop loss of around ± 3% in the range of 78000-91400, and focus on opening positions during US trading (with significantly higher volatility than Asian and European trading). Recently, there have been significant differences in market trading, and the above is just my personal trading thinking. I will provide a few data as a reference, but I will be cautious when considering strategies. The above analysis is based on a consensus that the current economic data is only slowing down rather than falling into a stagflation style recession, and once there are signs of a recession, there will be a Fed put or even a Trump put.