Key points of Powell's speech last night: 1. The reason for believing that the current US economy is still in a stable state is that: 1) the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year; 2) Since September last year, the average job growth has been 191000, which is very stable, and the unemployment rate has been hovering in the range of 3.9% to 4.2% 2. But when it comes to signs of weakening in certain aspects of the economy, such as consumption, he said that recent data shows that consumption growth may be slowing down, and multiple surveys have shown that businesses and households have increased uncertainty about the future economic outlook 3. For inflation, although the recent data is relatively high, we still see a decline in the two high categories of housing and non housing service inflation. 4. Regarding tariffs, Powell said If it's just a one-time event, the situation is simple. Textbooks will say, ignore it. But you also need to be sure of a few things, if it evolves into a series of events... If inflation rises more dramatically, then it can't be ignored, and what really matters is what changes will occur in long-term inflation expectations. How long-lasting will the inflation effect be? You need to consider all of these factors. You need to remember the current background, which is that we have just gotten rid of high inflation and have not yet fully sustainably returned to the 2% level. So you need to take all of these factors into consideration 5. Regarding Monetary Policy The Federal Reserve doesn't need to worry yet. We are in a good situation and will make a decision when the future becomes clearer. There is no fixed path for policies. If inflation does not move towards the 2% target, we can maintain interest rates for a longer period of time. However, if the labor market deteriorates or inflation rapidly declines, policies can be relaxed according to the situation. 6. Overall, Master Bao is still in a state of Tai Chi. Some people may think that not rushing to cut interest rates is hawkish, while others think that the current economic situation and policy clarity are in line with Powell's style of action. Last night's statement was also appropriate, without clear bias, leaving room for future policies. Try to balance the neutrality of the Federal Reserve with Trump's policy threats and various public speeches. It was said that Trump's policy power in the macro market this year is far greater than that of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The former is independent variable and the latter is dependent variable. The Federal Reserve has more countermeasures this year. It seems that Powell, like us, is also waiting for the policy to become clearer. From the perspective of the market, Powell anchored market expectations within the cognitive framework of "economic resilience", giving the market a sense of security, and the US stock market rebounded on Friday as a result. For the cryptocurrency market, the recent sentiment has become more fragile. Powell's argument that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates has slightly hit the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. This week, there has been an improvement in the macro margin compared to last week: the core issue is that the February service sector PMI exceeded expectations and last night's non farm employment falsified market recession or stagflation concerns in the short term. Let's see what happens to next week's CPI data.