Recently, the first generation king of encryption, Old Black, published his second discourse, explaining his in-depth views on Trump's 2.0 economic policies and their impact on BTC and the overall market. The article is quite long, and we have summarized some core viewpoints as follows 👇： one ️⃣ KISS Principle: Trump's Policy Interpretation The KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) principle reminds investors not to be distracted by policies and media hype. The core of Trump's economic strategy is debt financing, and he will not adopt austerity policies, but will maintain economic growth by expanding credit and lowering interest rates. two ️⃣ Trump vs Existing Financial System • Trump's goal: to reduce the debt burden of the United States in the form of "soft default" (debt restructuring) through coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve. • Bessent vs. Powell： Bessent (Treasury Secretary): A loyal supporter of Trump who hopes to restructure debt by extending debt maturities and lowering interest rates. Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman): An official appointed by Trump 1.0 and later aligned with the Democratic camp. At present, we still adhere to anti inflation policies, but may be forced to shift towards easing under the pressure of economic recession. three ️⃣ How to get the Federal Reserve to release water—— recession The Fed Succession Rule: Every time there is an economic recession, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and release liquidity. DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) policy: Led by Elon Musk, aimed at reducing government spending, minimizing fiscal waste and fraud. By laying off employees and cutting fraudulent benefits, it may lead to a decrease in government spending, which in turn can drag down the economy and create an "artificial recession". • Result: • Rising unemployment rate, government contract cuts, plummeting housing prices in Washington → worsening economic data → forced Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. four ️⃣ The four major response measures of the Federal Reserve • Interest rate cut: Every 0.25% decrease equals 100 billion yuan in liquidity; If it drops to 0%, it will be about 1.7 trillion. Stop QT (shrinking the table): 60 billion per month, with the possibility of releasing 540 billion by 2025. Restarting QE (quantitative easing)+SLR (exemption of bank leverage ratio): may release 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan. • Total release of liquidity: It is expected to be between 2.74 trillion and 3.24 trillion, which is about 70% to 80% of the water released during COVID-19 (4 trillion). five ️⃣ The impact on the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin Price Model: From 2020 to 2021, Bitcoin rose 24 times against the backdrop of COVID-19's 4 trillion yuan surge. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will release 70% -80% of the COVID-19 level this time, so Bitcoin may rise tenfold, with a target price of $1 million. six ️⃣ Trump's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Trump proposes to establish a national level BTC reserve, but faces funding issues: • Raise the debt ceiling (requires congressional approval) Re evaluate gold prices (increase government assets) Conclusion: Trump's debt financing model may trigger the Federal Reserve to release funds, providing strong support for risky assets such as BTC. DOGE plans to cut government spending, leading to an economic recession and forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Bitcoin may experience a surge in a new round of monetary easing, with a market target price of $1 million. The short-term market is still influenced by political games, and when funds truly flow in still depends on debt ceiling negotiations and fiscal operations.