4. Conclusion

1. NFP, as a data reflecting changes in the labor force, with an annual increase of 2 million people, is the dividing line between prosperity and decline in the labor market. Today's NFP data counters the recession expectations given by ADP employment, which was very weak two days ago; In the absence of expected non farm employment, the annual and monthly hourly wage rates were also lower than expected, which countered stagflation expectations. The worst case now is the data of quasi stagflation - employment falls short of expectations but hourly wage rates are higher than expected; 3. If the unemployment rate is higher than expected and non farm employment is slightly lower than expected, the economy is still fragile and will not directly return to the trading stage of not cutting interest rates in 2025 a month ago; The gap between ADP employment and non farm employment released this month is not small. ADP mainly reflects the private sector (and is collected on a weekly basis, with more flexible data), while non farm employment reflects the combination of the private sector and the government sector. The employment situation in the private sector is actually more fragile than that in the government sector, and the part-time employment situation is also more severe (the number of people engaged in part-time work due to economic reasons increased by 460000 to 4.9 million) Overall, compared to the GDP forecast and GDP employment of the past few days, this data has reduced the market's concerns about recession. But the difference between this data and expectations is not significant, so there is currently no obvious trading opportunity, which is similar to the current market pricing.