The non farm payroll data for 9:30 is about to be released. Write a quick article and throw it out. The reason why everyone is paying attention to the unemployment rate and non farm employment in February is to gain an early glimpse of the direction of the 3.19 Federal Reserve meeting (at 2:00 am Beijing time on March 20th) and the adjustment of interest rates in Japan on March 19th. We need to closely monitor several major changes, such as the EU's bond issuance, Germany's attempt to lift the debt ceiling (which has led to the rapid decline of the US dollar index from 106 to 103 in recent days), the US tariff stick, and how the Russia Ukraine war will end. And to glimpse the changes in US economic policies and the role played by Big Pancake in the complex and responsible situation. And use the meaning conveyed by economic data to assist in the operation. I have said many times before that the United States should have cut interest rates a long time ago, and at the latest in the first half of 2024, but due to political reasons, it has been continuously delayed. The core problem in the United States now lies in US Treasury bonds, especially the inverted long and short bonds. The inflation caused by excessive issuance of short bonds financing cannot be solved without interest rate cuts. In this way, the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market is constantly being harvested by the US Treasury. Inflation keeps rising without interest rate cuts, and the debt burden continues to increase. Cutting interest rates, or at least giving an expectation of a rate cut, is necessary to maintain confidence and resilience in the long run. Therefore, tonight's data will be relatively mild, showing a steady and positive trend, but at the same time giving the market confidence. For example, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4%, while the non farm payroll is less than 16%. After all, the Powell team needs to precisely control expectations - neither releasing signals of premature interest rate cuts to stimulate inflation, nor avoiding excessive liquidity tightening that could trigger a debt crisis. In the next one or two months, the market may continue to fluctuate widely, and buying high and selling low to expand the market may be the best strategy.