
Phyrex|Mar 04, 2025 17:45
Okay, although the first big melon today was a bit late, we finished eating it. On the third day after being kicked out by the White House to publish a general idea, Zerensky tweeted again, generally meaning to thank the United States for its help and hope that under the leadership of Trump, Ukraine can end the war with Russia as soon as possible.
Is this a good thing? I think it is. As mentioned in the top tweet, the biggest problem in the United States at present is the high inflation, which has led to the Federal Reserve's unwillingness to cut interest rates. This is partly due to the fact that high interest rates can easily trigger an economic recession.
The information given by GDPNow yesterday has turned the GDP forecast of the United States in the first quarter into a negative 2.8%, while Trump's tariff policy continues to add weight to inflation, and tariff increases for Canada, Mexico and China have begun to be implemented. So the market's expectations are not good.
This is also the main reason for the market decline since yesterday. The reason for the Russia Ukraine war and tariffs was clearly written in the homework yesterday. I have always said that the end of the Russia Ukraine war can fight against Trump tariffs. On the one hand, it is to reduce the inflation of food and raw materials, and on the other hand, the rare earth minerals mined from Ukraine can make up for the loss of the trade war with China.
So I did something. First, I placed multiple orders at the Bitcoin $84000 level. Actually, I really like to open an Ant position contract when the market is uncertain to judge my thinking. The previous Ant position I opened at $85800 closed when it fell back to $90000. Then, last night, I opened several test orders and found that they didn't match my expectations, so I gave up.
Actually, I am someone who doesn't like to talk about contracts. I have made a lot of money on contracts before, so unless it's a prediction of the market, I won't open or close contracts. Moreover, when opening contracts, I usually use Ant positions, which are the kind that explode when they explode. But basically, if I feel like I can't control the direction, I will stop losses in a timely manner. That's why I saw several stop loss orders last night.
Speaking of the market situation, I saw the signal of the end of the Russia Ukraine war, which happens to be the issue of hedging tariffs that I mentioned earlier. Therefore, I think there should be a chance in this direction. As I have already bought spot goods for $88000, I have no intention of buying them. Opening a contract is not only a test of direction, but also a small compensation.
So my opinion is still that I am optimistic about Q1. Although it is disgusting now, yes, it is disgusting, the end of the Russia Ukraine war is a good trend. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025, which is not a bad thing, provided that there is no economic recession.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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