1. Manufacturing PMI2. GDP forecast The Atlanta Fed's GDP has further dropped to -2.8%. Personally, I don't think we need to be too nervous because the GDP model of the Asian Federal Reserve is a model without human intervention. Although the economy has slowed down, it has not declined to this extent, and most of the contribution of this abnormal data comes from the trade deficit caused by the rush to import. This is not a definitive decline data. With more data input in the future, it is expected to be revised upwards. The New York Fed's GDP forecast remains at 2.94%. 3. Economic slowdown ≠ economic recession Since the last unexpectedly weak service PMI, the market has indeed shifted towards expectations of a trading recession: ① The stock market, bulk commodities, and cryptocurrency market all experienced a general decline ② From the high interest rates of stagflation trading to the current inversion of 10y and 3m, 10y has given up the term premium of previous stagflation trading ③ When I last tweeted, the probability of cutting interest rates twice and three times by the end of 2025 was still the same - now the probability of cutting interest rates three times has surpassed two times But based on more data and the rich tools of the Federal Reserve, I personally think it is more appropriate to describe the current situation as "slowing economic growth". As stated in the citation, the overall trading expectation of the market is officially shifting from "growth ↑+inflation ↑" to "growth ↓+inflation ↑", and will subsequently shift to "growth ↓+inflation ↓". The forecast for inflation data is further declining: ① Atlanta Fed March CPI forecast: 2.47% ② Atlanta Fed March PCE forecast: 2.08% ③ Truflation's latest inflation index forecast: 1.44% The current economic data is not fragile enough to lift the standoff between the Federal Reserve and Trump, so it is still based on the previous idea: after the data officially enters the stage of "growth+inflation", wait for the Federal Reserve's attitude to shift towards "economic measures" rather than "tariff measures". At that time, there will be a greater probability of a trend of long positions, rather than the current chaotic market. Short term intraday trading is too difficult, and I personally do not intend to participate in any market trend where Trump calls for orders on Twitter (of course, mainly because I cannot keep up with HHH).