🧐 Keep It Simple Stupid=KISS. Maintain a simple strategy and be patient—— Arthur Hayes： I firmly believe that we are still in a bull market cycle, and in the worst case scenario, Bitcoin could drop to $70000; Bitcoin is a barometer of global liquidity and will be the first to hit bottom and rebound. To be honest, I agree with Xiao Hei's analysis: Firstly, I firmly believe that we are currently in a bull market, and the previous wave of the market has already completed its stages, which is an undeniable fact. However, I believe that the most certain thing is that there may be a significant turnaround no later than the second or third quarter; Arthur Hayes' argument includes Trump's economic policies and their impact on global risk asset markets, particularly cryptocurrencies, and proposes the following key points: 1) Trump's Policy Objectives and Financing Methods—— As a performer with a real estate background, Trump excels at achieving his goals through low-cost borrowing. The author believes that he will implement the "America First" policy through debt financing, rather than triggering an economic depression through austerity policies. He hoped to become a president similar to Roosevelt (FDR) rather than Hoover, and therefore tended to maintain economic prosperity through printing money and loose monetary policy. 2) The game between the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve—— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell serve different "masters" - Bessent is loyal to Trump, while Powell is seen as leaning towards the Democratic camp. This divergence makes predicting the direction of monetary policy more complex. Xiao Hei speculates that Trump may force Powell to relax monetary policy (by cutting interest rates, stopping quantitative tightening, or restarting quantitative easing) by creating an economic recession or market panic. 3) The role of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—— Trump, through Musk's leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has significantly reduced government spending, cracked down on fraud and inefficient behavior (such as firing government employees and reducing ineffective spending). This may lead to a short-term economic slowdown or even recession, providing a reason for the Federal Reserve to intervene. 4) The impact on cryptocurrency—— The author predicts that if Trump successfully promotes monetary easing (expected to inject $2.74 trillion to $3.24 trillion in liquidity by 2025), cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will rise significantly, possibly tenfold from current levels to $1 million. The reason is that loose policies will increase the supply of US dollars and lower interest rates, thereby stimulating the prices of risky assets. 5) Investment advice and market outlook—— The author suggests that investors follow the KISS principle, focus on simple strategies (such as gradually buying when Bitcoin prices fall), and predict that the market may fluctuate in the short term due to a liquidity crisis, but remain bullish in the long term. He believes that Bitcoin is a barometer of global liquidity and will be the first to hit bottom and rebound. In summary, the article believes that Trump will trigger monetary easing through debt financing and policy manipulation, which may lead to economic turbulence in the short term, but will benefit assets such as Bitcoin in the long run. Investors should maintain a simple strategy and seize opportunities.