Here's how I see what's happening with America, Crypto, and Global Macro right now: America is sick. It's been sick for a long time and the medicine is causing short term pain. Tariffs: medicine for unfair trade deals that could, in the long run make America better at producing things and creating opportunity for blue-collar workers. However, in the short term this may cause economic unease and supply disruptions. Doge: medicine for a crazy amount of inefficient and ineffective government spending. In the short term, this decreases GDP, the amount depends on the actual money multiplier of fiscal spending. IE how much in GDP does 1$ of government spending create? Economists argue a lot about this with some saying it's a low amount with others saying it's more than a 1$. In any cause, as long as the multiplier is not zero, GDP will decrease in the short term These two things will put pressure on the economy. The Fed. will not want to be blamed for a sharp recession so they will be forced to: • Print money (QE / Quantitative easing) • Lower interest rates • Stop selling treasuries (stop quantitive tightening) Right now, Trump and the fed disagree over the direction of monetary policy. So to force the Fed's hand, the admin is looking to create a recessionary scare (while also getting better trade deals and making the government more efficient). I believe the outcome will be the same as it's been for decades. Lower interest rates. More dollar creation. Higher equity, real estate, and crypto prices. Oh but this time we are likely to also end up with a stronger America. cc: @cburniske @Delphi_Digital @twobitidiot @MessariCrypto @laurashin @BanklessHQ @Etherealize_io @VivekVentures @CryptoHayes