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Phyrex|Mar 03, 2025 15:15
The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not end soon, and Canada said that if the United States increases tariffs, it will retaliate. It has been said before that the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a plan that the market believes can offset the Chuanpu tax, especially rare earth minerals, which is a necessary means to restrict China's countermeasures.
Just now Zelensky stated that the agreement to end the war between Ukraine and Russia is still very, very far away, and there is still one day left for the increase in tariffs, so the inflation data for March and April may not look very good.
Last Friday's core PCE showed that the inflation data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is declining. If the data for March and April starts to rise, the market and the Federal Reserve may attribute it to tariffs (including food, energy, raw materials, daily necessities, etc.), but the final result may still be unfavorable for interest rate cuts.
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