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Daan Crypto Trades|Mar 03, 2025 01:32
Some thoughts on the market:
1. The announcement itself is bullish but we don’t know any details. It’s an announcement of an announcement technically, and those have disappointed in the past. I do think some of the skepticism is partly due to the bad market sentiment though. If this is really a Strategic Reserve where the US might also end up buying, which seems more likely to me seeing the inclusion of coins like XRP, ADA etc which the Government doesn't hold yet as far as I know, the entire sector is going much higher.
2. It has been a weekend move which also tend to retrace more often. Having said that, some of the biggest breakouts during larger bull cycles have often come during weekends and these CME gaps that were opened often don’t get filled until much later (or at all). It’s the ideal timing to keep a lot of market participants sidelined. Which is also reflected in the current sentiment. Additionally, TradFi generally takes time to accumulate. If they belief this was the catalyst to start adding on exposure, that won’t happen in a few hours on a Sunday. The BTC Spot ETF took months to get properly priced in. Don’t overthink it if prices aren’t where you think they should within the same week or even month.
3. Whether you like it or not, this is what the market is now. Heavily news/Trump driven. You can hate/love Trump but if this Strategic Reserve is created and the US starts buying, it will be a net positive for the asset prices. You’re either in or you’re out. Just enjoy the ride.
4. Personally have been asked if I think the top of the cycle is in many times the past week. My reply has been, No, I don't think the top of the cycle is in as I belief BTC heads higher in 2025. I do think many alts won't ever get back to their previous all time highs but that's nothing new compared to other cycles. BTC is what determines the cycle top for me and that's what I base my long term views on.
For now I'm just letting this all play out and we'll see what happens into the Crypto Summit on Friday the 7th. Likely going to be a (short term) sell the news event unless there's an actual clear plan or at least a hint of the US accumulating coins in the future.
Interesting times, that's for sure.
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