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飞凡|Mar 02, 2025 14:01
How much impact do tariffs have on Bitcoin?
There are three recent events related to Bitcoin prices and tariffs:
1/ 2025-02-03
BTC drops to $91441
Trade war concerns trigger selling pressure
2/2025-02-24
BTC falls below $91000
Tariff confirmation intensifies market volatility
3/2025-03-01
BTC falls below $80000
Revised expectations, US dollar strengthens
The key to BTC's trend lies in the market's response to tariffs:
-If tariffs increase import costs, push up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and cause inflation to rise, BTC may rise
-The trade war may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, and investors may turn to safer assets such as the US dollar and BTC, causing a decline
-If tariffs directly lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and a decline in BTC, but if the US dollar weakens due to internal economic issues, BTC rises
It can be compared that during the 2018 US China trade war, the price of Bitcoin fell from around $6000 at the beginning of the year to around $3000 at the end of the year, but this did not affect Bitcoin's subsequent retaliatory rebound.
For short-term BTC traders, CPI and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are the key data to focus on in the short term. For BTC holders, the escalation of the global trade war may be the most uncertain event affecting the long-term value of Bitcoin.
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