The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP forecast shows a shift towards negative growth in trade deficit (import and export trade prices ahead of tariff policies), while the Cleveland Federal Reserve's PCE forecast further declines in February. After Trump's victory, macroeconomic expectations have shifted from ① "growth+inflation+" to ② "growth+inflation+", gradually shifting towards ③ "growth+inflation+". The probability of truly falling into a recession is very low, waiting for the Federal Reserve to turn around. Although the FOMC will not cut interest rates in March, we can pay attention to whether there will be dovish remarks.