
链研社|Mar 02, 2025 03:48
Someone is following the latest technical details and business operation data released by DeepSeek.
Calculate DeepSeek's theoretical revenue, but ignore DeepSeek's existing $500 million graphics card holdings
Cost and Revenue Analysis
Daily total cost: 87072 USD (approximately 630000 RMB)
Theoretical income: $562027 (approximately RMB 4.09 million)
Cost profit margin: 545%
Actual income constraints: V3 is priced lower than R1, some services are free, and night discounts are available
The actual income may need to be discounted by 50-80%, but this is still very scary. There is no need to burn money to gain users. With a user base of 100 million, the cost of inference is only 630000 RMB. This indicates that AI computing power is no longer beyond the reach of giants. However, there is an undeniable fact that Deepseek previously owned graphics cards worth 500 million US dollars (according to media estimates)
What will happen in the future?
1. After the optimization cost plan is announced, cloud vendors can obtain profits similar to DeepSeek's data release
2. The demand for graphics cards on the B-end has significantly decreased, and existing graphics cards are completely sufficient. With a user base of 100 million and a cost of less than 1 million RMB, it is simply unbelievable
3. The cost control plan, which is a trade secret, is fully disclosed. Will there be a bigger trump card in the future? It's horrible
4. The number of individuals and enterprises deploying R1 solutions on their own will sharply increase, no less than the deep customization system based on Android by mobile phone manufacturers after the open source of Android at that time
5. Both openAI4.5 and Grok3 have proven that the road to improving model intelligence scores through pre training is coming to an end, while DeepSeek R1's AI algorithm still has huge room for improvement, at least reducing inference costs by 20 times
6. AI applications have reached the moment of iPhone, and more AI applications will be commercialized, which is really like the eve of the outbreak of mobile Internet
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