
Caleb Franzen|Mar 01, 2025 10:12
Over the past 28 months, ETHBTC has:
• Fallen for 21 monthly candles (75% of the time)
• Risen for 7 monthly candles (25% of the time)
The data is even worse since the start of 2024, with 11 down months & only 3 up months (21.4% of the time).
Using quarterly candles since Q1'23, ETHBTC has fallen in 7 of the past 8 quarters and is currently tracking towards its 8th in 9 quarters for Q1'25.
This downtrend has been so significant (in terms of duration and magnitude) that ETHBTC is currently trading at the same levels as it was in March 2016... WHICH WAS 9 YEARS AGO. In other words, practically anyone who has bought ETH instead of BTC at any point over the past 9 years and didn't sell has been outperformed by Bitcoin.
Let's pick objective numbers & look at trailing annual returns for ETH/BTC:
• 1-year returns: -52.1%
• 2-year returns: -62.3%
• 3-year returns: -61.4%
• 4-year returns: -16.9%
• 5-year returns: +2.4%
• 6-year returns: -26.3%
• 7-year returns: -68.5%
• 8-year returns: +95.1%
• 9-year returns: +80.7%
In other words, the more recently you bought ETH instead of BTC, the worse your decision has been.
I'm not trying to be mean... these are just facts.
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