Let's talk about tariffs, which currently dominate transactions. First, let's take a look at the current situation: -China 19% (original)=>19% (effective from March 4th, administrative order) -Mexico and Canada will impose a 25% tariff on their products, with a 10% increase on Canadian energy products (Executive Order) -EU: 25%, no specific deadline yet Specific impact: As shown in Figure 1, the overall tax revenue is approximately 430 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of PCE goods, The PCE ratio is around 2%, and the GDP is around 1.5%, so I think the impact on inflation is still quite significant - I don't think these impacts are "one-time" as some people say, because the rise in import prices may be instantaneous (and even later in Europe), but retail prices may reflect delays, which will distribute price growth across different months. In addition, the pain of the people will be very obvious because the price of goods has increased by about 5% -6% Of course, because tariffs on imports will decrease, the overall impact will be smaller. Conclusion 1: Tariffs have a real impact on inflation In this situation, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is not high. Another question is, will this trigger a trade war and further escalation of tariffs? For example, Trump was supposed to add 60% tariff to China, so is the current 10% only the first step? I think this is determined by the transaction status of both parties. At present, the United States has trade deficits with these economic entities, such as Dongda, and may retaliate relatively gently, but it may not necessarily lead to a trade war. Because if the trade war continues to escalate, the impact on Dongda's exports will be even greater. Conclusion 2: There should not be a large-scale escalating trade war like the one in 1930. But Trump may not take the initiative to continue to increase tariffs, because so far, his purpose is not very obvious. The third question is, will Trump extend tariffs to other countries? It can be seen that China, Mexico, and Europe only account for 50% of the overall imports of the United States. Conclusion 3: Tariffs will inevitably extend to other countries and regions If all are charged at a level of around 20%, the overall tax revenue will be approximately X 2, which means that if the commodity price increases by about 10%, PCE will have an impact of approximately 4%.