The adjustment range in the history of the US stock market over the past 20 years: Last night, the US stock market further fell sharply, and the highest point of the Nasdaq was adjusted by more than -9%. A month ago, it was said that this year's US stock market surge should see an adjustment of around -15% (not so precise). You can review the adjustment range of the US stock market over the past 20 years as a reference for the current situation: 1. In my personal judgment system, the adjustment range of the US stock market (taking the Nasdaq as an example, the S&P usually has a slightly smaller range than the Nasdaq): -10% or more belongs to minor adjustments; -15% to -20% belong to the middle level adjustment; -25-30% or higher is considered a major adjustment. 2. There have been four major adjustments in the past twenty years 1) From early 2022 to November, the Nasdaq was at -28% and the S&P was at -32%, mainly due to inflation hitting a 40 year high and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in nearly a decade; 2) In March 2020, both the Nasdaq and S&P experienced a significant drop of over 30% within a month, mainly due to the liquidity shock caused by the global spread of the pandemic; 3) From October 2018 to the end of December 2018, the Nasdaq was -25% and the S&P was -21%, mainly due to the fastest final stage of the previous round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the China US trade war; 4) From October 2007 to March 2009, the Nasdaq was -56% and the S&P was -58%, mainly due to the financial crisis. 3. Intermediate level adjustment: 1) In July and August of 2024, the Nasdaq was -17%, the S&P was -11%, and there were concerns about recession and the ebb of carry trades; 2) From August to October of 23, NAI -15%, S&P -11%, inflation rebound, treasury bond bond repurchase crisis; 3) From July 2015 to February 2016, the Nasdaq increased interest rates by -20% and the S&P by -15%, marking the first time interest rates were raised and technology stock valuations were digested; 4) From 5673 to November 2011, the Nasdaq was -20% and the S&P was -23%, mainly due to the European debt crisis and the slowdown in US economic growth; 4. Minor adjustments (-10%) were made in April 2024 (Nasdaq -10%) and February March 2023. If we look back, there will be one or two adjustments every year. 5. In fact, the current adjustment of the US stock market has only reached the level of small-scale adjustment. If you are familiar with the magnitude and causes of every adjustment in history, there is no need to see someone start calling for a financial crisis. The core reason for this adjustment is: First, the "pain period" of Trump's policy triggered a shift in market expectations (from the previous "lower inflation and stronger economy" to stagflation expectations "that the economy will not slow down and stagnate under the rebound of inflation"); The second is that the market valuation is high and the market has become sensitive, requiring valuation regression to complete valuation digestion. Upon closer examination of the market, there is no systematic risk: The current financial pressure index is still at a low level and has not surged; The overnight guarantee interest rate (SOFR) between banks is also in a normal state; The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is still in a downward trend; A few days ago, we talked about how the market has entered a state of extreme panic and we can buy some (fire the first shot), but there is still a lot of inertia in market expectations, so there will be further opportunities to buy on dips (buy in batches). Now, the adjustment range of nearly -10% has actually begun to enter the previously expected -15% adjustment range, and buying in batches is still appropriate.