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Phyrex|Feb 26, 2025 19:21
The essence of tariffs is monetary policy. Although the 25% interest rate in Europe is already very bad, if the Federal Reserve's March dot matrix shows no interest rate cuts in 2025, or only one interest rate cut, this may be the beginning of bearish sentiment. Even so, it is not the end of bearish sentiment because there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes. Although the probability is low, once inflation continues to fluctuate and rise, the market may expect the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, which will be more troublesome at that time.
Because facing the possibility of an economic recession, which is the last drop, I may temporarily stop my plan to buy at the bottom and switch to a wait-and-see approach, especially for Friday's core PCE. In fact, if the core PCE is good, it will not fall again. If it is not good, the significance of buying at the bottom is not significant for the time being, just wait for the March data.
So when it comes to monetary policy, the worst-case scenario is only when there is an economic recession, which will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early because an economic recession will definitely lower inflation. But the inevitable consequence is the emergence of a golden pit in the risk market.
I never expected that I would say the expected economic recession in Q1.
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