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Phyrex|Feb 26, 2025 17:05
Can you explain why I believe it's not yet a bear market? Of course, this is just my personal interpretation and may not be correct.
Firstly, from the trend of liquidity, although the Federal Reserve has become more aggressive in its monetary policy since 2025 and the expected increase in interest rate cuts is not yet possible, monetary easing in the United States is already on its way. Although it is moving slowly, monetary easing is an inevitable trend.
Of course, this does not mean that a bear market will not occur, but the conditions for a bear market to occur are inevitably accompanied by an economic recession, the occurrence of a black swan, or a significant decrease in liquidity.
But in reality, although the US stock market has been falling for three consecutive days, both the S&P and the Nasdaq broke through historical highs last week. As of now, the Nasdaq has recovered from yesterday's decline, and the S&P even has a chance to recover from Monday's decline. If this situation has to be called a bear market, I find it difficult to understand. If there is, it is not now.
Many people may say that although the US stock market is good, it has nothing to do with cryptocurrency. However, if we view the US stock market as a leveraged technology stock, it may be easier to understand. On the one hand, it is the uncertainty brought by monetary policy. On the other hand, the tariff policy has led to a decrease in investors' expectations. On the other hand, some investors have left due to the historical high. To put it another way, every time Bitcoin breaks through the historical high, there are also a large number of investors leaving. This is also a truth for the US stock market.
As a leveraged technology stock, I think it's not impossible for cryptocurrency. Secondly, in 2023 and 2024, we all experienced eight months of garbage time. Every time we go through garbage time, some friends always talk to me about a bear market. If we run away, it will start with X. In 2023, it once fell below $25000, and in 2024, it once fell below $50000.
At that time, the talk of a bear market was even more intense than it is now. It was only August at that time, and in six days, it fell from a high of $70000 to $49000. However, it gradually returned to the support range from $49000. It was not as bad as it is now, but it broke through a new high again with the trend and entered a new stage.
I don't think it's a matter of faith. At least I think Bitcoin can be bullish in the long run, and as long as BTC has a chance, other cryptocurrencies will have some opportunities. I also think there's no problem. If you think this is a bear market, what are the standards for a bear market? Short it. When you think it's a bear market, you can consider shorting. If buying anything during a bull market can lead to a rise, then during a bear market, you can make a profit by buying anything short.
I will also start entering short selling mode, but not now, and I will not short BTC either.
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