Today's work is still very heavy. I didn't expect that the price of Bitcoin would fall by 10000 dollars within 24 hours. The market sentiment is really bad. Today, many small partners are looking for reasons for the fall. It seems that there are many possibilities, but in fact, it is still investors' panic about Trump tariff, and behind the tariff is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. So ultimately, liquidity is still influencing the market. In fact, the recent positive news has been good, and the support of the United States for cryptocurrencies is evident. If we put this situation in 24 years, it should not be a problem for Bitcoin to reach a new high. Unfortunately, in 25 years, investors' emotions are more focused on monetary policy, and their expectations for interest rate cuts and liquidity are far greater than their expectations for policy. I have been saying that the bad tone is liquidity. Today, many investors are scolding Trump and think that Trump is even inferior to Biden. Although they say that they support cryptocurrency and AI, in fact, these two sectors have recently fallen into a river of blood. On the one hand, his tariff policy has increased the actual shopping pressure of the people, on the other hand, it has also erected a higher wall for interest rate reduction. Of course, there are some friends who oppose the idea. After all, in the long run, Trump's support for cryptocurrency and AI is likely to make these two industries go further and better. Although there may be some twists and turns in the short term, these are all in the consideration of "the United States first", especially the increase of tariffs. In fact, it is to reduce the tariffs imposed on the United States by other countries, but also to increase fiscal revenue and reduce the fiscal deficit. In particular, the DOGE department of Musk has begun to talk to the U.S. government agencies, and may return more personnel to reduce financial pressure. So no matter what, as investors, we can only bear passively. Either we expect Trump to be tough in advance and leave early, or we have to endure a hard time. After all, from the long-term trend, the United States has gradually shifted from monetary tightening to monetary easing, which is an indisputable fact, but this road may be particularly difficult in the last two years, especially in 2025. In fact, when it was first said that interest rates may be cut twice in 2025, it was doomed that the difficulty of 2025 will rise significantly. Whether it will continue to deteriorate in the future, I think it still depends on monetary policy. Currently, everything is an expectation of monetary policy, and Friday's core PCE data is an example. Although it is inevitable that interest rates will not be adjusted in March, investors still want to know whether the data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is rising or falling. On the contrary, I still think Q1 inflation data is within expectations, but it will be even more difficult when Q2 tariffs are fully reflected in the data. My view on the market is still 'garbage time', and the current situation is becoming more and more similar to 2023. In 2023, the market's ups and downs were all supported by BTC spot ETFs, which would rise with more news and fall after the news time. 2024 is also similar, at that time the market sentiment was hanging on the election. By 2025, strategic reserves will remain a concern. Many friends have asked me if I am still optimistic about Q1, and my answer is still that compared to the days to come, Q1 still has expected value. Q2 may become even more difficult, especially for altcoins, which are only now becoming more difficult. Looking back at the data of BTC, panic is inevitable, with nearly 210000 BTC traded throughout the day. However, the main body of panic is still short-term investors, especially those with costs above $95000, who have shown signs of worsening panic. Investors with costs below $95000 are actively buying, and there are currently no signs of long-term investor panic. In terms of support, investors between $93000 and $98000 still show no signs of significant reduction in holdings. Although panic has intensified, more investors have not sold, especially those around $97000, who have not shown signs of significant decrease. In the past 24 hours, the decrease in BTC between $93000 and $98000 is only about 16000, which is not very exaggerated. Furthermore, according to UPRD data, the gap between $77000 and $84000 has not been filled yet. This gap is very similar to the downward gap of CME's BTC futures. Compared to CME, URPD has never experienced a situation where the gap is not filled in history. Of course, at least for now, I still do not believe that this gap will be filled in the short term. If it really needs to be filled, it may be after Q2. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex