As shown in the citation, due to doubts about whether the economy can tolerate nominal interest rates above 4% for the whole year, combined with recent data, "recession expectations" outweigh "stagflation expectations": ① Short term interest rates decline+stock market decline+precious metals/crude oil decline ② Consumer confidence index falls short of expectations, with marginal weakening of consumer confidence ③ The quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was lower than expected, and the S&P Service PMI fell short of expectations, resulting in a marginal weakening of economic growth data Since the unexpectedly weak S&P services PMI fell below 50 last Friday (for the first time in 25 months), the probability of the Federal Reserve making more than two interest rate cuts in 2025 is increasing. Against the backdrop of recession concerns, the decline of 10y and dxy cannot simultaneously bring about an increase in risk appetite, and the top priority is to survive 🧐