QCP: If the spot market continues to remain sluggish, it may suppress institutional demand for BTC

星球日报
星球日报|Feb 25, 2025 09:27
Odaily Planet Daily News: QCP Capital announced on its official channel that Bitcoin has finally fallen below $90000 within a month and is currently hovering below that level, triggering over $200 million in liquidation in the past few hours. Following Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investment, market sentiment continues to be under pressure. As the price of Bitcoin declines and short-term option hedging activities increase, the implied volatility of the one month term has now rebounded to 50, while the option skewness interestingly remains relatively unchanged. Macroscopically, despite the emergence of data previously believed to have led to broader market weakness, the stock, fixed income, and gold markets have largely absorbed these impacts, while Bitcoin remains sideways. The increase in the proportion of Bitcoin market value and the decline in the price of altcoins indicate that the long positions of altcoins may be full, and any new inflow of US dollar funds will only flow into Bitcoin. We maintain a cautious attitude. Recently, the demand for Bitcoin has mainly been driven by institutions such as Micro Strategy and Metaplanet, which raise funds through issuing equity linked notes. Considering that cryptocurrency related issuances have accounted for approximately 19% of total issuances in the past 14 months, this type of financing market may be nearing saturation, and if the spot market continues to remain sluggish, it may suppress institutional demand.
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