Phyrex
Phyrex|Feb 19, 2025 20:35
I should have read the news first, but it's already past 4am and I'm afraid I can't keep up after running for another day, so I'll finish my homework first. The overall mood today is still good. The impact of the US time limit on the market mentioned in yesterday's homework is quite significant. After all, the Asian market did not panic as much as the US market, so they did not follow suit and instead took a wait-and-see approach. After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, there were concerns about the debt ceiling and plans to suspend or reduce the balance sheet reduction plan. Therefore, the market gave a positive response, believing that a new balance sheet reduction plan may be announced in March. Although this positive news is not completely stopped, it is already good enough to leave some liquidity in the market, and coupled with the liquidity stimulus of TGA, there may still be some opportunities. In addition, today's rebound is also related to excessive emotional reactions yesterday. In yesterday's homework, we also talked about the issue of SOL unlocking. The amount unlocked this time is actually just the beginning, and it will be released gradually in the future. If it pours all at once into the market, it is the dumbest choice. Even if it is necessary to sell, OTC will be chosen. Of course, OTC may have some impact later, but it is not a situation of concentrated selling. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, there has been a slight increase in turnover in the past 24 hours due to significant fluctuations. Essentially, there have been more investors buying at the bottom, and as the price has risen, these investors have not seen a large amount of selling. Instead, there has been a significant outflow of loss making investors. This reminds me of what many friends have said, that every rebound is the best opportunity to exit, but this statement should be used during bear markets. Currently, it may not be applicable to BTC at least, but it is true that investor sentiment is still quite poor. Garbage time is just garbage time, there's nothing to say about it. I just saw a friend's message saying that Q1 is garbage time and Q2 is bearish. Does this mean that the bull market is gone? Actually, my personal opinion is still that Q1 can be expected. Although it's garbage time now, it doesn't mean that the whole Q1 is garbage time. Even garbage time has opportunities to rise, it just falls faster. The bearish outlook on Q2 is not something that will happen immediately, it is only measured based on the current market progress. If there are new positive developments in Q2, or if the Federal Reserve suddenly realizes and starts cutting interest rates directly, it will change the market pattern. There is no 100% prediction for the future, it is all a matter of taking one step at a time. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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