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Phyrex|Feb 19, 2025 20:00
It's already late today. You can take a look at the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, but to be honest, the results are not the same whether you look at them or not. What everyone is most concerned about is whether they will continue to cut interest rates and completely stop reducing balance sheets. From the officially released minutes, it seems that it is not advisable to let the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates in the short term. "As long as the economy remains close to the maximum employment level, they (the Federal Reserve) hope to see inflation further decline and then make further adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate
The meaning of these two sentences is that as long as there are no major problems with employment, such as a significant increase in unemployment rate, inflation is now the most concerning issue for the Federal Reserve. This is consistent with what Powell said in his last speech, which is that the Federal Reserve hopes to reduce inflation first and then lower interest rates.
So the emotional weight of inflation (core PCE) will be higher, and the latest core PCE data will be released next week.
Another point is that in terms of reducing the balance sheet, although it will not completely stop in the short term, the Federal Reserve may consider it appropriate to suspend or slow down the reduction of the balance sheet when considering the debt ceiling issue. That is to say, it is very likely to propose a temporary easing or suspension of the reduction of the balance sheet at the March interest rate meeting, which can also be considered a good thing.
After the release of this information, the US stock market showed an upward trend, which is believed to be a response from the market to slow down or suspend the reduction of balance sheets.
Original address: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250129.htm
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