Regarding the possibility of Microsoft quantum computing chip Majorana 1 cracking Bitcoin private keys, a comprehensive analysis should be conducted based on the current development status of quantum computing, encryption technology principles, and practical technical limitations 1. The basic principle of quantum computing cracking Bitcoin private keys** The private key security of Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve encryption algorithm (ECDSA) and hash functions (such as SHA-256). In theory, quantum computers can threaten Bitcoin security in two ways: -Shor algorithm: It can efficiently decompose large prime factors or solve elliptic curve discrete logarithm problems, thereby deriving private keys from public keys. -Grover algorithm: It can accelerate brute force cracking of hash functions, but its efficiency improvement is only on the square level (such as reducing from 2 ^ 256 attempts to 2 ^ 128 attempts), which is weaker than the exponential advantage of Shor algorithm. At present, the main threat to Bitcoin comes from the Shor algorithm's cracking of ECDSA, which requires quantum computers to have sufficient logical qubits and low error rates. --- 2. Performance and current technological limitations of Majorana 1 chip** According to search results, Microsoft has not yet disclosed the specific parameters of the Majorana 1 chip, such as quantum bit count, error rate, etc. But its technological boundaries can be inferred from other advances in quantum computing: -* * Logical Quantum Bit Requirements * *: Cracking ECDSA requires approximately * * 13 million logical quantum bits * * (estimated based on Shor algorithm optimization). -* * Conversion of physical and logical quantum bits * *: The current mainstream error correction schemes (such as surface codes) require approximately * * 1000 physical quantum bits to support 1 logical quantum bit * *. Taking Microsoft's 2024 collaboration with Quantianum as an example (12 logical qubits generated from 56 physical qubits), there is still significant room for improvement in conversion efficiency. -Error rate requirement: The fidelity of logical qubits must exceed 99.9% to support complex calculations. The fidelity of logical qubits demonstrated by Microsoft in 2024 has reached 99.8% (physical qubits are 75%), but large-scale scaling still needs to be broken through. --- 3. Feasibility assessment of actual cracking of Bitcoin private keys** -Current technological level: As of early 2025, the most advanced quantum computers (such as Quantianum's 50 logical qubits and Google Willow's 105 physical qubits) are still far from reaching the scale required to crack ECDSA. -Assumption requirement for Majorana 1: If the Microsoft Majorana 1 chip adopts a similar error correction scheme, the following conditions must be met: -Each logical qubit is supported by approximately 1000 physical qubits. -Cracking Bitcoin requires approximately 13 million logical qubits → corresponding to * * 1.3 billion physical qubits * *. -Currently, the total number of physical quantum bits in quantum computers worldwide is only a few hundred to a few thousand (such as the 256 neutral atomic quantum bits in Atom Computing). -Time and resource constraints: Even if the number of qubits meets the standard, extremely low error rates, stable running time (hours to days), and algorithm optimization are still required. At present, the technology does not have these conditions. --- 4. Bitcoin's defense mechanism and resistance to quantum upgrades** -Short term security window: The Bitcoin public key is only exposed during transactions, and quantum computers need to crack the private key and broadcast new transactions in a very short period of time, which is currently difficult to achieve. -Anti quantum encryption algorithm: The Bitcoin community has been researching post quantum cryptography (such as lattice based signature algorithms), but has not yet deployed it. Other cryptocurrencies such as QRL and IOTA have attempted to integrate anti quantum schemes. -The possibility of blockchain fork: If quantum threats are imminent, Bitcoin may upgrade its encryption protocol through a hard fork to maintain security. --- conclusion Based on current technology speculation, even if the Microsoft Majorana 1 chip exists, it will not be able to crack Bitcoin private keys in the foreseeable future. The core conditions required for cracking (tens of millions of logical qubits, extremely low error rates) far exceed the existing technological level, and the Bitcoin ecosystem can resist threats through technological upgrades. In the next decade, quantum computing is more likely to be prioritized for scientific simulations (such as chemistry and materials science) rather than password cracking.