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Scott Johnsson|Feb 19, 2025 15:40
This vote is (very) big for two reasons:
(1) We get a heat check from the Dems on a limited crypto-specific resolution. They had an unpopular crypto platform under Biden and this rule encapsulates everything wrong with that approach. It's going to pass regardless, with at least some bipartisan support. Asymmetric incentives to vote for the resolution (as we saw with SAB 121 and FIT21, with a high watermark of 33% of Dems in the house voting for the latter). How much will pure partisanship / anti-crypto animus play into the breakdown? How much weight does the industry throw around in DC post-election? This will be key when trying to determine when and how likely we see stablecoin legislation later this year.
(2) CRA joint resolutions means a rule “may not be reissued in substantially the same form, and a new rule that is substantially the same … may not be issued, unless the reissued or new rule is specifically authorized by a law enacted after the date of the joint resolution.” That means this risk from the flawed language in the infrastructure bill should be largely mitigated going forward.
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