Phyrex
Phyrex|Feb 18, 2025 19:44
Going out is not good at this point. Every update is usually late, but it is difficult to improve awareness in all aspects without interacting with friends. Although the market sentiment is not very good today, the market is saying that every meeting will fall, but the short-term price changes are difficult. It can be known that there is no negative sentiment in the market today. Of course, I know what everyone is trying to say. On the one hand, investors' emotions are not very friendly, and the US stock market has experienced a decline. On the other hand, it is due to the unlocking problem of SOL, which has become increasingly severe in the past two days. The market panic has caused the entire cryptocurrency to fall when SOL falls. Indeed, many friends have asked me recently if the unlocking problem will have any impact. I think it can be divided into two parts. One is the emotional impact, which is beyond doubt. There will indeed be a large number of SOLs unlocked on March 1st, and it's not just for this fixed time. In fact, there has been linear unlocking since February, and the average cost of these chips is around $70. (Galaxy Digital's cost is $64, while other institutions are $94, but Galaxy Digital bought two-thirds of it) But it should be noted that only about 35% of the SOLs were unlocked this time, so in reality, if these institutions smash all the SOLs, it is indeed possible for SOLs to create a big hole. However, for institutions, it is very likely to lose money. If institutions really want to sell, they can use OTC methods instead of directly smashing the market. Therefore, personally, I think this concern is a bit overthinking. Even OTC will have an impact on the market in the future, but institutions are not fools. What they need is to maximize profits, not to smash everything at once, after all, there is more to be unlocked. So in my personal judgment, the possibility of a sudden market sell-off in the second part is too low. It should be noted that even MSTR purchases are made through OTC and there is a concern that they may affect the market trend too much. These institutions are not fools. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, it can be seen that the price of BTC has indeed fallen due to user emotions or serial liquidation, even falling below $94000. However, from the data, it does not reveal the panic of investors. In fact, the turnover rate of BTC on the chain is lower than yesterday, and such a low turnover rate is definitely not a big institutional crash. And in fact, according to the data, loss making investors accounted for nearly 70% of the total turnover, let alone institutional sales. The more important reason is that a large number of investors between $93000 and $98000 did not show signs of significant reduction in holdings, and the support is still very stable. So overall, it may be a drop caused by emotions, and it is evident from the price that even the decline in SOL prices is in the Asian time zone, while after entering the US time zone, SOL has basically stopped falling. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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