QCP Asia： The Ethereum options market is experiencing volatility, with Pectra upgrading as a key driving factor

According to QCP Asia analysis, there was a significant change in the term structure of the options market when it expired in March, especially in the ETH options market, reflecting traders' layout before the Ethereum Pectra upgrade. The upgrade is currently being tested and is expected to be launched in early April. Looking back at past upgrade events, The Merge upgrade in September 2022 followed a typical "buy expectations, sell facts" pattern, with ETH rising over 100% from its June low, but experiencing a pullback after the event. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 (allowing pledge withdrawals) is facing pessimistic sentiment, and the market is concerned about excessive supply. However, when the selling pressure did not materialize, ETH subsequently rose by 30%. At present, traders may be preparing for another wave of volatility events, with implied volatility leaning towards a bullish trend after March 28th, which may lay the foundation for future market layout, especially as the cryptocurrency market enters a wait-and-see phase after the Trump tariffs. However, the market is also facing a reverse force, including the collapse of LIBRA, SOL and ETH falling back to pre election levels, and Bitcoin's market capitalization approaching historical highs. In addition to market catalysts, the sustained recovery of altcoins may require substantial progress in real-world adoption and network development, rather than relying solely on speculative capital inflows.