QCP Capital： Options market layout: Ethereum Pectra upgrade, weak altcoins and other factors may suppress upward momentum

On February 18th, QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that the term structure of the options market has shown significant distortion near the March expiration date, especially in Ethereum options, which may reflect the market's layout for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing stage and expected to be launched in early April. Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merger upgrade followed a typical "buy expected sell fact" pattern - ETH rose more than 100% from its June low and then fell back after the upgrade. In contrast, the upgrade in Shanghai, which implemented the pledge withdrawal function in April 2023, faced pessimistic sentiment due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months. As the expectation of upgrading heats up, traders may be laying out for another volatility event, with option volatility leaning towards call options after March 28th - which could lay the foundation for the next layout theme in the cryptocurrency market after the Trump tariff scandal. One restraining factor is the general weakness of the altcoin market - the collapse of LIBRA, the fall of SOL and ETH to pre election levels, and the near historical high of Bitcoin's market capitalization. In addition to market catalysts, for altcoins to achieve sustained recovery, substantial progress may need to be made in practical applications and network development, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.