The actual and implied volatility of Bitcoin are both close to their lowest levels in many years

According to CoinDesk, since the end of November last year, the trading price of Bitcoin has been between $91000 and $109000, with a very narrow range of fluctuations. In other words, the volatility of Bitcoin has significantly decreased. According to data from Glassnode, the actual volatility over the past two weeks (an annualized measure of an asset's volatility over the past two weeks) has dropped to 32%, one of the lowest levels in several years. In addition, the one month volatility implied by options (the market's expectation of volatility over the next four weeks) has also fallen below the annualized level of 50%, which is also one of the lowest levels in several years. To gain a more intuitive understanding of the sideways consolidation of Bitcoin, one can refer to what analyst Checkmate calls the "volatility index". The data shows that Bitcoin's volatility has reached its highest level since 2015 on a weekly time frame, indicating the narrowness of its trading range. Volatility often has the characteristic of mean regression, which means that abnormally stable markets often indicate significant volatility, and vice versa. The longer the consolidation time and the narrower the range, the more intense the final volatility outbreak will be. In short, the most intense interval volatility since 2015 may soon pave the way for intense price fluctuations. Bitcoin will eventually break through this range; The question is whether it will break through upwards or downwards.