The collapse of the order of counterfeit coins (long article version, reading time about 5 minutes) 1/The dilemma and current situation of counterfeit coins Why can't the altcoins in the cryptocurrency market rise this time? The biggest reason is the collapse of the crypto order under the leadership of Binance and FTX. In a bear market cycle, institutions, market makers (MM), and exchanges outside of retail investors have already made a lot of money, while the benefits of the project have been almost completely divided before going online. This clearly points to a conclusion: the current altcoin market does not have a future altcoin season, and the problem lies in the projects themselves. 2/Several Crimes of Shanzhai Projects ① Excessive valuation: When Binance and FTX compete for the market, they significantly raise the valuation of cryptocurrency projects in the primary market. Taking Story Protocol as an example, the final valuation of this on chain IP project reached 2.25 billion US dollars (approximately 20 billion RMB). By comparison, Bubble Mart's market value at the beginning of last year was only 20 billion yuan, but at that time it had a mature profit model with a P/E ratio of about 14 times. And Story, a project without any successful outcome, can have the same valuation? Hack VC and a16z dominated the game of Story, and I immediately asked @ carrawu and @ cdixon, the investment managers of @ a16z and @ a16zcrypto at Story, how they valued the IP in this way? But there is currently no response. If there is still no response, it almost confirms that Story is a VC accumulation project. ② Data support for false prosperity: Almost all encryption projects heavily rely on the false prosperity created by the 'hair picking group'. These groups obtain airdrops through interaction, but have almost no stickiness to the project. And the listing requirements of the exchange are highly dependent on these on chain data, which leads to a vicious cycle: When it was launched, the group of hairdressers quickly withdrew their pledged tokens, causing a sharp drop in project data. The synchronous decline in data and market valuation makes institutions more sensitive and will quickly reprice and ship. Individual investors have a poor holding experience and become the last buyers. ③ However, the current listing requirements of the exchange have not kept up with the times, and new standards that are more in line with market demand have yet to be introduced. This resulted in the project reaching its peak from the day of coin issuance, and almost destined to fail. 3/Regulatory and Market Divergence in the United States: According to the press conference of David Sacks, the appointed head of encryption by Trump, his goal is to ensure that "blockchain happens in the United States". This means that CEX, like Binance, which is not deeply tied to American interests, will become the opposite of David Sacks. The traditional funds dominated by the United States tend to invest in Solana and its ecosystem or XRP, assets favored by US regulators. At present, the benefits of the altcoin market have been completely divided before listing, and traditional funds have no reason to take over these "junk assets" in the cryptocurrency circle, such as Solv, 0g (CFX project that has not yet been issued) Berachain, etc. The main trend of the counterfeit market will shift towards other new ecosystems under US regulation. 4/The Decline and Reflection of ETH The original sin of ETH comes from the transition from POW to POS, which changed the participant structure of the market: from mines and mining machine manufacturers to large players, retail players, and new retail players. The future expectations of ETH depend more on the following three factors: ① Lido's main POS revenue, but the annualized revenue is less than 10%, which does not meet the expectations of retail investors. ② The interactive benefits of projects that have not yet been issued coins, while the new coin order has collapsed and the expected returns have decreased. ③ On chain profit opportunities, such as charging for dirt dogs, but Solana's opportunities are much higher than ETH's. The foundation has cashed out multiple times at high levels, further undermining the confidence of ETH holders. However, Vitalik and the foundation's lack of reflection on the current situation has gradually caused the market to lose confidence in the order of ETH. 5/Market iteration and opportunities The order of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a dramatic change: From Bitfinex, BitChina, to Bitmex Huobi， Moving on to Binance FTX， Now it's the game of Binance Blackrock Pumpfun. The market is at a turning point of dramatic change, and everyone must seize the opportunity that arises here. Maintain patience.