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财经少华|Feb 15, 2025 02:32
What factors can trigger the knockoff season?
The knockoff season is usually triggered by the start of a Bitcoin bull market, and the first step in capital flow is usually an influx into Bitcoin and major knockoffs.
The media hype has attracted the attention of retail investors, who may start buying knockoffs as a result. Meanwhile, investors who profit from Bitcoin will turn their funds to the knockoff market in pursuit of higher returns.
From historical data, this phenomenon usually occurs during the stage when Bitcoin breaks new highs for the second time.
The flow of funds in the cryptocurrency market has a relatively clear path:
Bitcoin → major knockoffs → high market value tokens → medium market value tokens → low market value tokens.
Bitcoin is usually the starting point for capital flow, followed by the total market value of the main knockoffs, and finally it is the turn of other tokens (including high market value and medium market value tokens). The key is that a large amount of funds first flow into Bitcoin and the main knockoffs, and then the market's greed will drive the funds further to flow to other knockoffs.
This is the triggering mechanism of the knockoff season. We are now on the right track. The entire cryptocurrency market (mainly composed of Bitcoin and some major knockoffs, as the knockoff season has not yet truly arrived) has grown from $700 billion to nearly $4 trillion.
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