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Adam@Greeks.live|Feb 13, 2025 02:26
Yesterday's CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, hitting BTC at $94000 at one point. However, with factors such as Powell's positive remarks on cryptocurrency, major currencies are expected to appreciate to their high levels this week.
At present, the main term option IV is at a relatively low level in the past year, and Dvol has only been lower than the current level 14% of the time in the past year. The short-term IV is particularly low, with a monthly maturity IV of only 46%, and the options market has low expectations for future volatility.
The main reason for this phenomenon is the sustained weakening of bullish forces in recent times, with large whales continuing to sell in bulk bullish sentiment. Since the end of last month's delivery, Skew has been in a continuous downward trend and is currently oscillating around the zero axis.
Now is the time for the market to digest Trump Trade's garbage, and following the giant whale to sell options seems like a better choice.
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