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看不懂的sol|Feb 13, 2025 00:35
The trade war is about to erupt, China chooses to reserve gold, while the United States chooses to reserve Bitcoin
In 2024, the market value of the US stock market increased by $12 trillion, equivalent to about 40% of the US GDP, and the total market value has now exceeded twice the GDP, setting a record high in the past century. Such a high market value level represents a significant deviation from the 'real' economic potential.
When asset prices rise, people will feel richer and increase their consumption expenditure. This supports higher consumer demand and may exacerbate inflationary pressures. On the contrary, if there is a market adjustment, the situation will be the opposite: people will feel a decrease in wealth and start saving more, which may reduce overall demand and alleviate inflationary pressures.
In the event of an adjustment in overvalued assets, gold and Bitcoin are highly likely to play their classic defensive roles. Furthermore, given that the trade war has prompted China to increase its gold reserves, we are likely to see gold prices reach $3000 per ounce in the near future. And the United States has chosen to quickly advance BTC strategic reserve legislation and increase Bitcoin reserves.
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