QCP： Tonight, CPI may become a catalyst for triggering a significant drop in DXY, and buying put options in the cryptocurrency market is relatively cheap now

According to BlockBeats, on February 12th, QCP released a daily report stating, "Bored to the core! This is the current state of the market over the past two weeks." Despite ongoing tariff actions between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as well as on steel and aluminum imports from China and the United States, the traditional financial (TradFi) market has failed to find a clear direction. On multiple indicators, there are no signs of panic on Wall Street. The VIX index seems to be fixed at 16, indicating that market participants have bought protective measures for further negative news. Powell's testimony in the Senate reiterated the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" stance, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 may be slower. Despite this hawkish attitude, the US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to rise. Based on CFTC data, it is inferred that the market holds a large number of long positions in the US dollar. The difference in interest rates also indicates that the US dollar is overvalued relative to other currencies, which may explain why DXY is struggling to gain momentum. Given that negative news may have been digested by the market, we believe that the US dollar is now facing greater downside risks. Any positive news could force dollar long positions to liquidate significantly, potentially driving up risk assets. Tonight's CPI release may become a catalyst for triggering a significant drop in DXY. However, this upward trend may not benefit all ships. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to perform poorly, lagging behind stocks and gold, indicating some hesitation within the cryptocurrency community. Liquidity remains thin amidst the numerous new listings added each week, and last week's large-scale liquidation resulted in significant losses for many traders. For participants who still hold long positions in cryptocurrencies, tracking institutional fund flows and purchasing downside protection may be the best strategy currently, especially since buying put options is relatively cheap.