Analyst: Expected US CPI data may be positive for Bitcoin, but the possibility of a breakthrough rise is unlikely

The US Department of Labor will release January CPI data at 21:30 (Beijing time) today. If inflation data is lower than expected, it may boost market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, push down US bond yields and weaken the US dollar, which is beneficial for risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, Mott Capital Management data shows that the two-year inflation swap rate has risen to 2.8%, reaching a new high since early 2023, indicating that market expectations for future inflationary pressures may increase. Analysts from BlackRock and Royal Bank of Canada believe that persistent service sector inflation and wage growth above the Fed's 2% target may force the Fed to maintain high interest rates. According to CME data, the market expects a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once this year or remain inactive. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating and consolidating in the range of $90000 to $110000, and there is little possibility of a short-term breakthrough rise.