Today's homework is difficult to submit again, and I actually like the situation that was a bit disjointed a few days ago. When there is a disjointed situation, there is a game. I know many friends want to know why it fell today, whether it is to avoid the CPI to be released on Wednesday. From today's overall performance, there is indeed a part that serves as a safe haven, and a larger part comes from Powell's speech at the hearing, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, and so on. I didn't listen in detail to this hearing because I think Powell's speech at the just concluded interest rate meeting was clear enough. There won't be any new ideas today, and the fact is the same. However, I don't know why almost the same content can cause secondary damage to the market. Since Powell started speaking, the market sentiment has not been very good. Actually, it's not a big deal. Isn't it just that there won't be a short-term interest rate cut? Today is not the first time I have heard that Powell and officials from the Federal Reserve have made it very clear that they will not consider cutting interest rates in the short term. The factors that can promote interest rate cuts are either a decrease in inflation or a deterioration of the labor market. Let's skip this topic for now. In fact, today's geopolitical conflicts and tariff issues are also affecting inflation. Many people are worried that rising inflation will lead to the Federal Reserve not increasing its interest rate cuts. In fact, there is no game to play with this. Since the interest rate cuts in 2022, the market has been playing with the Federal Reserve, but it has never won. Every time it is expected, failed, expected again, and failed again. The Federal Reserve has always followed its own pace, and the only reference point is the dot matrix of four times a year. So I think the biggest downside currently is that on the March 2025 grid, the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be reduced to less than 2, which may be the biggest downside. If it is greater than 2, it is already a good thing. Of course, this possibility is still too low now. Therefore, instead of playing the game that inflation in the United States can decrease in the short term, it is better to play the game that DOGE can increase the unemployment rate in the United States. This has some game theory. Returning to the data on labor force, I have emphasized multiple times this month that labor force data has changed from being bad data regardless of whether it is good or bad data to being good data regardless of whether it is good data (declining unemployment rate) or bad data (rising unemployment rate). The former indicates the strength of the US economy, while the latter represents that the Federal Reserve can increase the frequency of interest rate cuts, and currently the US economy is still in recession a bit early. So in the short term, there is a high possibility of inflation maintaining or experiencing slight upward fluctuations, which can be seen through a dot matrix chart for the impact on the Federal Reserve. Of course, the market is not so rational, and I admit that inflation related data may make the market more sensitive. Today, I also discussed with many friends about TGA injecting liquidity into the market, which may have a slight positive effect on the market in February, March, and April. After all, it is true that liquidity should increase slightly, but increasing liquidity still needs to be in line with investors' risk preferences. I hope Q1 can have a good result. I just took a look at the US stock market, and the sentiment in the market has started to stabilize. The three major stock indexes have all started to rise, and the release of emotions is also about to begin. Next, it may be the turn of cryptocurrency. In most cases, cryptocurrency investors care more about macro data than stock investors, and they are also more fragile, which is quite interesting. Looking back at the data of BTC, the turnover rate in the past 24 hours has continued to decline compared to the same period, and the decrease in turnover rate means that it is increasingly shifting towards junk time, because more investors are unwilling to buy or sell. Emotions determine the buying and selling of most short-term traders, and as market sentiment worsens, short-term traders also begin to decrease. This is junk time, and there is no doubt that it is currently in junk time. At present, although the price of BTC is not friendly, even falling below $95000 today, on chain data shows that the support range of $93000 to $98000 is still very strong. There is still a downward trend in support, which indicates that the sentiment of most investors with holding costs above $90000 is still very stable. Wednesday is the CPI data, I hope there won't be any issues, especially with the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. PS： Today's response is too late, let's talk about it tomorrow. Leave a message overnight. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex