Brothers, it's really going to rebound this time! ➤ The negative sentiment of tariffs and trade wars has been basically digested Recently, the negative impact of tariffs and trade wars on the market has been largely digested. For example, BTC's response to US tariffs is no longer as sensitive as before. On February 9th (Beijing time on the morning of February 10th), Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel starting next Monday. Yesterday morning, BTC briefly fell below the support level, but quickly rebounded above 96000. This morning, when Trump officially announced the tariff policy, BTC showed little apparent reaction and immediately began to rise, approaching 98000. ➤ Shanzhai coins and on chain activities are 'eager to move' In addition to BTC, some altcoins such as Swarms and Uxlink had already started to rebound before the release of non farm payroll data last week. The popularity on the chain is also recovering, with Stocks appearing on Solana chain and TST on BSC chain. The PUMP currency is about to be released, and the market activity has significantly increased. ➤ US government TGA account releases liquidity In January, the US treasury bond hit the ceiling. Before the ceiling was reset, the US Treasury Department took "extraordinary measures" to temporarily reduce the investment in some funds, and "appropriated" part of the funds into the TGA account (general account of the Treasury) of the Treasury. At present, TGA accounts have increased by $203 billion in funds. Some of this capital will be redeemed or repaid by the Federal Reserve, while the other part will pay for government expenditure and gradually flow into the market. Although no specific data on the reduction of the Federal Reserve's holdings of treasury bond has been found recently, I calculated the changes in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in the past three months (from November 4, 2024 to February 3, 2025), resulting in a total decrease of $183.364 billion, or an average daily decrease of about $1.993 billion. The change in TGA balance shows an average daily decrease of $9.533 billion from December 16th of last year to January 7th of this year. At this rate, it is expected that $203 billion will flow out of the market within 21 days. If the Federal Reserve did not accelerate its balance sheet tightening, this liquidity release would be equivalent to the effect of temporary QE, adding approximately $7.54 billion in liquidity to the market every day. In addition, the Ministry of Finance can also 'allocate' an additional $133 billion in liquidity. ➤ Japanese and Korean crypto ETFs release positive signals Recently, there have been continuous positive news related to cryptocurrencies in the Japanese and Korean markets The Japan Financial Services Agency is considering lifting the ban on Bitcoin ETFs and plans to lower the cryptocurrency tax rate to 20%. Jung Eun bo, Chairman of the South Korean Stock Exchange, once again calls for promoting the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs in South Korea. All of these have injected positive emotions into the market. ➤ Write at the end Yesterday's article mentioned that the current market environment is quite similar to the situation from March to September 2024, both in an atmosphere of waiting for interest rate cuts. Although the pullback in February and March was somewhat similar to the adjustment on May 1, 2024- when the market converged after a decline and began to rebound around the 15th - the current market is gradually stabilizing, especially with projects such as BSC Chain, PUMP, and Virtuals releasing positive news almost simultaneously. Some sectors and tokens have already experienced significant declines and may see a stronger rebound, especially in the AI sector. But there are a few points to note: Although the current market is somewhat similar to March September 2024, it cannot be fully benchmarked. For example, unexpected events such as Trump's policies may have different impacts. Moreover, the market expectations for 2025 have weakened compared to 2024, especially for altcoins, which may result in a weaker bottom for each oscillation compared to 2024. During the period of March to September 2024, BTC experienced overall volatility, but altcoins generally fluctuated downward. The current performance of ETH is not as good as the same period in 2024, and the expectation of a rebound peak for altcoins should be kept cautious. Roughly estimated, the temporary liquidity released by the US Treasury Department may bring about a 21 day QE effect. If released from February 10th, it is expected that new non farm payroll data, CPI data, etc. will once again affect the market in early March. Next, the US January CPI data will be released tomorrow. After this milestone, the market may enter a "safe period" of about 21 days, and the rebound range should be relatively optimistic. However, don't assume too early that the bull market is returning just because of optimism. There will be multiple important data releases in March, including non farm payroll (March 7), CPI (March 12), and the interest rate meeting on March 20. This will be a policy sensitive period, during which the market may be re examined and adjusted.