Not a hawk, similar to price in companies like FedWatch, there are two paths towards the next stage of interest rate cuts: ① Path 1: After the tariff policy, the impact on inflation was discovered through data such as 3M/6M, and it was decided whether to further reduce or raise interest rates; ② Path 2: Due to the high level of real interest rates, the economy slows down or employment problems arise, leading to a growth shock that forces interest rate cuts; ③ The interest rate hike in 2025 is currently not under consideration. The market originally expected to wait for 3-6 months after the implementation of tariffs on January 20th to see the effect. But now it has been found that negotiations on tariffs are very slow, and tariffs will form a gradually accumulating system (global reciprocal tariffs+specific country tariffs+specific industry tariffs), so it is difficult to evaluate the impact of path 1, which Nick has also expressed in his article. Path 2 is to wait for high interest rates to have side effects on the economy or employment, and then use this to lower interest rates. It feels quite difficult to maintain a nominal interest rate of over 4% for the entire year of 2025 without affecting economic growth and employment. From a transactional perspective, fluctuations in 2025 are the norm, as successive tariffs have affected the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rate cuts. In order to maintain the continuity of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve will continue to operate in a lagging manner and maintain the logic of "monetary countermeasures". I have been practicing using HYPE as a band marker recently, and the K-line shape has a clear oscillation range that is more suitable for practicing band strategies.