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棋局|Feb 10, 2025 15:58
Based on existing information, Musk, as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the Trump administration, actively promotes the agenda of abolishing the Federal Reserve, but from legal, political, and historical experience, the possibility of dissolving the Fed is extremely low. The following is a comprehensive analysis:
1. Legal obstacle: The independence of the Federal Reserve is protected by law**
-The independence of the Federal Reserve is established by the Federal Reserve Act, and its officials can only be dismissed for "justifiable reasons" (such as dereliction of duty or crime), rather than due to policy differences. Even if Musk and Trump attempt to intervene through administrative means, it would require legislative support from Congress or a Supreme Court ruling, but in recent years, the Supreme Court has tended to uphold the legitimacy of independent institutions (such as the precedent of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau).
-Abolishing the Federal Reserve requires congressional legislation, and although the Republican Party currently controls the Senate, the Democratic Party may obstruct it through judicial procedures or public opinion pressure.
2. * * Political resistance: opposition from vested interest groups**
-The Federal Reserve has close relationships with Wall Street and traditional financial capital such as the Morgan and Rockefeller families, and its policies directly affect the global economy. Musk's reforms are seen as a challenge to existing interest groups and may face strong resistance. In history, presidents who attempted to weaken the power of the Federal Reserve, such as Kennedy and Lincoln, have all been assassinated, demonstrating the potential risks of such actions.
-Although Trump supports Musk, his team has not explicitly listed "abolishing the Federal Reserve" as an official policy, only mentioning "modifying operational rules".
3. * * Economic risk: may trigger global financial turbulence**
-The sudden dissolution of the Federal Reserve, which holds approximately $20 trillion in US Treasury bonds, could lead to a credit collapse, a surge in default risk in the US, and ultimately impact global financial markets. Musk advocates exposing the Federal Reserve's "opaque operations" through audits, but even if successful, alternative plans after dissolution (such as transferring functions to the Treasury Department) may exacerbate the crisis of trust in the US dollar.
4. Musk's Strategy and Limitations**
-Musk is currently mainly promoting institutional reforms through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), such as cutting the US Agency for International Development and reducing federal employees, but these actions have been hindered by legal litigation. If we turn to the Federal Reserve, the resistance will be even greater.
-He proposed that Ron Paul, who has long criticized the Federal Reserve, lead the audit work in an attempt to gain public support by exposing the Fed's "black box operations," but this move is more of a publicity stunt and cannot shake the Fed's legal status.
5. * * Warning of History and Reality**
-The call to abolish the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon. Ron Paul and others have repeatedly pushed for relevant bills, but have not been successful. During his first term, Trump attempted to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but ultimately failed to change its independence due to legal restrictions.
-At present, the US debt scale has exceeded 36 trillion US dollars. If the Federal Reserve is abolished, the government may lose its ability to adjust the economy through monetary policy, further exacerbating the financial crisis.
conclusion
Musk personally cannot directly dissolve the Federal Reserve. This goal requires breaking through multiple limitations of legal frameworks, political games, and global economic stability. In the short term, its actions are more likely to focus on "weakening the influence of the Federal Reserve" or promoting partial reforms, rather than completely abolishing it. The future direction will depend on the political capital of the Trump administration, the legislative process of Congress, and the attitude of the Supreme Court, but the probability of success is extremely low.
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