Bitfinex report: Bitcoin has been consolidating for over 75 days and is expected to continue oscillating in the near future
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区块律动BlockBeats|Feb 10, 2025 13:53
According to BlockBeats, on February 10th, Bitfinex released a report stating that "Bitcoin prices have stagnated in the range of $91000 to $102000, entering a consolidation phase lasting over 75 days.
However, this long-term range oscillation reflects the increasing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset, with its annualized actual volatility dropping to historic lows. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, especially with a significant drop in price when Trump announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Recent trends indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a 'risky asset' rather than a mere tool for storing value. Its correlation with the S&P 500 index remains strong, while its relationship with gold has weakened. Although Bitcoin has risen by 3.5% this year, gold has risen by 9% and reached a historic high. The rise of gold has increased its market value by $1.5 trillion, while Bitcoin has increased by $66.5 billion. This differentiation trend mainly stems from the purchases of institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds, which have largely ignored Bitcoin due to regulatory issues and volatility concerns.
However, some signs suggest that the situation may be changing. Now, over $196 billion worth of Bitcoin is held by exchange traded funds (ETFs), public and private companies, and even countries. As central banks around the world expand their money supply, the risk of fiat currency depreciation increases, making Bitcoin's fixed supply characteristics increasingly attractive.
We expect Bitcoin's range oscillation to continue in the near future, and if macroeconomic conditions worsen, it may face downward pressure. However, despite the continuous rise of gold and changes in institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin, the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value remains intact in the long run
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