Things didn't pan out as in prior bull runs time-wise, so need to go back to the drawing board. First the Fed turned hawkish in December, then the Trump coin caused extraordinary volatility and a liquidity drain, and finally Trump came out more agressive than expected after inauguration on the tariffs front. Think the most similar moments to the current market on the crypto side are May 2021 and May 2024. Still very different though. BTC is stuck in a range, which I think eventually resolves higher. The supercyle theory is intact. Even though it applies to bitcoin and crypto as a whole, most old alts don't benefit from it on a sustained basis. Should not expect an insane wave of liquidity driving all crap higher for an extended period of time. Be selective. SOL is our fastest horse for good reason, but it has very heavy unlocks in the next two months. Tax season should drive heavy selling - can worry about that in a month. Ethereum ... needs an intervention. Increased value capture from L2s. Plus a few more killer apps running on it. Alts are already dead. Expect a new alt season at some point. Shorter and smaller than prior ones. Positioning is very negative, and so is sentiment. but timing is unclear in the absence of clear catalysts. It can come out of nowhere. Bigger picture, have to think that the ideal time for new players to enter a new market is when outside conditions are decent (goldilocks + dovish Fed+ low uncertainty) AND the natives are depressed, not when they are happy. The fact that most crypto natives are angry or depressed is actually bullish. Tariffs will eventually lose their punch (already starting to happen) and expect attention to move to increased government efficiency (my base case). Trump is most definitively bullish for risk assets, just need to zoom out enough. The Fed eventually turns dovish, but not as early as expected, as they need to see tariffs driving no second order effects. Next cut in June. These trigger a double whammy on rates, both on the front and long ends. Risk follows higher. This is IMO a good time to be bullish yet patient. Not fully allocated so as not to let two-way volatility drive one insane. A great market for active traders as well.