Sam Altman releases three observations about AGI: AI usage costs decrease by approximately 10 times annually

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in his blog that AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) is gradually emerging, and its impact may surpass all previous technological changes. He made three key observations about the economics of AI: The intelligence of AI models is logarithmically related to computing resources - the investment in training computation, data, and inference computation can increase infinitely and achieve sustained and predictable benefits. 2. The cost of using AI decreases by about 10 times annually - for example, the word cost of GPT-4 in early 2023 has decreased by about 150 times compared to GPT-4o's cost in mid-2024, far exceeding the growth rate of Moore's Law. 3. The intelligence of linear growth brings super exponential socio-economic value - this drives investment to continue increasing and will not stop in the short term. Altman predicts that AI agents, such as software engineering assistants, will become "virtual colleagues" and widely penetrate various industries. He believes that the economic impact of AI may be similar to that of transistors, changing the world in ways that are not easily noticeable but extremely profound. Meanwhile, the popularization of AI may lead to a sharp decrease in the cost of certain goods, while the price of scarce resources such as land may rise. He emphasized that policies and social consensus are crucial for the future of AGI. To ensure that the benefits of AGI are widely distributed, new economic models may be needed, such as providing a 'computational budget' to everyone worldwide. He believes that by 2035, everyone should be able to mobilize intellectual resources equivalent to the global wisdom of 2025, which will greatly unleash human creativity.