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链研社|Feb 07, 2025 11:17
The current version of the altcoin market is no longer pessimistic and can be left empty, but everyone is rushing to be empty when it goes online. We have never seen such a consistent market before, and the project we are looking forward to has strong control over the market and violent price increases have never occurred. What is the reason for this?
The trading methods of recent projects have quietly changed. Have you noticed that the initial circulation ratio of projects that have recently been listed has greatly increased. Taking recent examples of Binance, the initial circulation has all exceeded 20%, which has not been seen before. So there is reason to suspect that this is designed to facilitate VC and project monetization (capital recovery) for quick cash out, and whether it is a king level project or an ordinary project, if it is delayed for another month, the final round of valuation may be difficult to sustain.
Taking the initial circulation of several recently launched knockoffs on Binance as an example
BERA-21%
ANIME-55%
SOLV-15%
BIO-41%
USUAL-17%
PENGU-70%
The previous method of using low liquidity, strong control, and high market value is no longer sufficient for the current market. It has now entered the middle and late stages of the bull market, and by the time new projects and VCs are truly unlocked, there will be no buying interest in the market. The final round will break, and the situation may become worse in the future. The more initial circulation quantity there is, the more operational space there will be. For the current market, any narrative without cash flow support, even with ecology, may not necessarily succeed.
Let's take BERA's listing yesterday as an example
Berachain has raised a total of $142 million in financing, with a final valuation of $1.5 billion.
The highest listing price is 15, FDV is 7.5 billion US dollars, and the circulating market value is also 1.575 billion US dollars.
At the current price of 744, FDV is worth 3.7 billion US dollars, with a circulating market value of 800 million US dollars
If you are the project team and only have $142 million in hand, can you protect this deal? Moreover, as a second tier leading ARB with less than 5 billion US dollars, it can only be said to be very difficult.
Berachain is already very good compared to other projects, and there is still a chance for the secondary market to double when it opens. And the fundamentals are not bad either, it's not the kind of pure VC packaging, it's airdropped to BNB's HODLer, and it's not like other projects opening directly.
The more realistic situation is that even if the project party intends to make a difference in the coin price, the situation does not allow it. Projects that have been listed on Binance are already in the top tier of the market.
VCs have been constantly inflating project valuations in recent years, and the boomerang has ultimately hit them. The best way to protect themselves is not to buy, to obtain low-cost chip airdrops, or to hold BNB airdrops. The same goes for other platform coins, only mining to obtain without purchasing.
If you have a clear understanding of project valuation and know the distribution of chips like the back of your hand, can retail investors also cut off VC by shorting projects instead of taking orders from the market? I think that's why there is so much consensus on bearish projects now, and projects rarely have moments of violent price increases.
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