Every day, many friends leave messages about why there are so many benefits, but the price is not rising. This assignment is becoming more and more difficult to hand in. Indeed, today there is only one less information about Trump's application for Bitcoin+ETF, but there is still a lot of favorable information in the last two days, but the price is more difficult to see, not to mention the counterfeit currency that has become unbearable. Even BTC is a headache for many children, and rising is the first mainstream. In fact, we have encountered this kind of thing before. Starting from 2023, there will be up to eight months of garbage time every year, and now it is most likely to be garbage time. Of course, it is not that everyone cannot accept garbage time, after all, Bitcoin has risen well before. What makes it difficult for everyone to accept is why everything looks good and enters garbage time. This turning point still needs to start in December 2024, when the Federal Reserve announced for the first time that it would continue to maintain high interest rates and reduce the magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025. Therefore, the better the rise before December, the worse the liquidity and sentiment after December. After finally hoping for a rate cut, it stopped after only two cuts, and even planned to only cut it twice a year, which is why investors are so sensitive to interest rates and inflation. Talking too much is useless. The current reality is like this, but if you have to say how bad it is, it is not necessarily true. The previous trend of the US stock market was very bad, with DeepSeek and China imposing fines on Google, and even the issue of tariffs causing the US stock market to retreat. The US dollar index broke through 109, but today, looking at it, the US stock market has gradually emerged, the US dollar has also dropped to 107, Nvidia has risen three times in a row, and Google has also begun to rebound. When the US stock market clears up, cryptocurrency will not be too bad at least. In particular, the current Trump government's technological development is mainly AI and cryptocurrency, so I believe that the U.S. government will release more benefits in these two industries next. Although buying may be bad for liquidity reasons, as long as inflation, economy and employment can release favorable signals, the market may still expect the Federal Reserve to be less hawkish. Looking back at the data of BTC itself, it now highly overlaps with the situation of the previous two garbage times. Once there is information, whether positive or negative, there will be a large number of turnover. Once there is no information, turnover will be greatly reduced. Although there is no data today, there will be an update on non farm payroll data on Friday, and some investors' risk aversion has also emerged. In fact, during Powell's last speech, he publicly stated that the labor market and wages are no longer the main reasons for inflation, and now he hopes to maintain the stability of the labor market. That is to say, the Federal Reserve has already believed that the current labor market is sufficient and is no longer pursuing further improvement to cool down the labor market, but why is there still a risk aversion among investors? Based on current market forecast data, although the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% as before, the labor force participation rate has decreased and the growth rate of wages is also decreasing. Some investors may think this is a sign of an economic recession, as it is highly likely to occur under high interest rates. However, in reality, the current economic situation in the United States is still very stable. It is said that the recession is too early, and it is precisely because of this that there has not been a significant risk aversion or pullback in the US stock market. Cryptocurrencies may only have a habitual pullback. It is believed that after tomorrow's data is released, the impact will not be significant Although the price of Bitcoin fell below $96000 today, the overall support and user sentiment are still good. The continuous rise of the US stock market will still provide some confidence support for cryptocurrency, as the US stock market does not have large-scale hedging, and the impact of cryptocurrency is even lower. Moreover, the support from $93000 to $98000 is still very stable, and there is no sign of highly concentrated investor panic. Vibration may be a normal process of garbage time. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex