Orange Evening Interpretation 2.6 The market value of the AI agents sector was 18 billion yuan a year ago, but now it is only around 7 billion yuan. It has been halved again and again, and the market value of several leading virtual companies has dropped to over 800 million yuan$ AI16Z is even worse, with a direct drop of 300 million, AIXBT 250 million, Griffain 160 million, Arc 190 million, Fartcoin 500 million. It feels like there is gold everywhere, and it's really fine to rush in now! ​ The current market is still in a state of risk aversion, with the large pie fluctuating below 100000 yuan. Due to the uncertainty of the tariff war, many funds are afraid to enter recklessly at this time. The crypto czar that the market hoped for the night before yesterday will reveal more Bitcoin strategic reserves and the connection between Trump's newly announced sovereign wealth fund has not been followed up, which has led to a lack of short-term positive expectations in the market. In addition, it is now the second half of the week after the Spring Festival, and the willingness of Asian retail investors to operate is not so strong. On chain trading has also become much quieter compared to before the year. Many imitations on CEX have entered the historical low range, resulting in a very low community activity and a feeling of bear hunting. Macroscopically, last night the US Department of Labor released the small non farm payroll ADP employment data, which was exceptionally hot. In January, 183000 new jobs were added, creating a new high since October last year and greatly exceeding the expected value of 150000 people. Although this data is not completely linked to tomorrow's non farm payroll, it also has a certain impact on the market, especially the expected value of tomorrow's non farm payroll is very low, only 170000 people, while the previous value was as high as 256000 people. In theory, if tomorrow's non farm payroll can reach the expected level, the probability of the Federal Reserve closing down in March will increase. After all, the economy is not so good, so the demand for interest rate cuts will rise. Therefore, last night's ADP is considered a small bearish trend. However, if tomorrow's non farm payroll is large, it will increase the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March. If the expected level can be achieved, it will have the effect of suppressing the desire to rise first, and the market will definitely have a good rebound at that time, Tonight, there is another data on the first unemployment claim for the week, which also has a certain impact on the market. The larger the value, the more favorable it is. You can pay attention to it. Let's talk about a few data and predictions. The first one is that the funding rate of Bitcoin has recently turned negative, which generally reflects that the market will continue to rise. In the previous year, there were six instances of negative interest rates, all of which were rebound after hitting the bottom. This data indicates that traders are overly bearish on the market, and the probability of the market hitting the bottom is very high at this time; Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin will reach $200000 this year and rise by $100000 annually for the next three years; The US SEC has transferred its chief lawyer for cryptocurrency litigation to the IT department, and it seems that the SEC is going to retrieve the previously released 40 meter big knife; The S2F model of PlanB shows that Bitcoin has entered a phase of significant increase in FOMO; Crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that the market value of Bitcoin needs to exceed 70% to start a new round of "knockoff season". Currently, the market share of Bitcoin is 64.3%. The US Senator from New Mexico has submitted the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, proposing to allocate 5% of public funds. Hong Kong lawmakers have expressed the need to accelerate research on the possibility of Bitcoin strategic reserves. VanEck predicts that SOL will rise to $520 by the end of the year, with a market value of $250 billion; Little Black Arthur Hayes holds a pessimistic attitude towards Bitcoin's strategic reserve policy and still believes that Bitcoin will rebound to $70000 to $75000. Finally, let's talk about the counterfeit market. As I mentioned earlier, many of the old coins on CEX have entered the historical low range, indicating that everyone is living a miserable life. Some of the ones that haven't fallen much are still under strong market control, such as the $om market, which can still pull the market against the trend. This type of coin is really not worth chasing, as it has completely detached from the overall market; There isn't much strong trend in other areas. Last night, CB went public and Ethfi lifted the staking and in staking sectors. Last night, Pendle LDO Ethfi's trend was relatively strong, especially in the RWA track where ondo PolyX was basically one of the dwarfs; The narrative of AI agents has also been relatively cool recently. The sector value recorded on cookies was 18 billion yuan a year ago, but now it is only around 7 billion yuan. We have been cutting back and forth, and the market value of several leading virtual platforms has fallen to over 800 million yuan$ AI16Z is even worse, falling to 300 million directly. Now there is a feeling of gold everywhere. AIXBT is 250 million, Griffain is 160 million, Arc is 190 million, Fartcoin is 500 million. This price is really a big sale compared to before this year. Of course, those who are in the car are also losing money. However, at this time point, they can get in the car. I think these mentioned above are all very cheap. Let's take the most certain virtual one as an example. If there is definitely an AI agent that can reach a market value of 10b in the future, then virtual is definitely the first candidate. Buying now also has a return of more than 10x. So I think now is a good time to invest in AI.