
Karl|Feb 06, 2025 11:10
the market structure going forward can be divided into four closed systems with non or minimal interchangeable flows. This makes the case harder for a rising tide lifts all boats dynamic we've seen in past cycles, with also metrics such as BTCDom becoming irrelevant.
1 - Majors (BTC/ETH) -> tradfi ETF flows
2 - Few good alts -> hype/aave/ena, etc. Common denominators are Clear pmf / Good Fundamentals / Value accrual mechanisms / Moat / Category winners.
3 - Bad alts -> slow path to zero as the massive overhang ($36b 2025, $40b 2026) kicks in with limited demand. This is where most venture backed coins with bad tokenomics and high insider ownership lie.
4 - On-chain casino led by Pump Fun, few of these have a shot at becoming 2 and most will go to zero. The key difference though is that once again it is possible to become early in liquid markets, whereas in 3 it's an almost guaranteed loss with capped upside. Retail is mostly here
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