
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|Jan 31, 2025 17:40
Predictive Power of The Bitcoin Quantile Model 👀
If you ran this model at the end of 2018 (when Bitcoin was at 3700), it would very closely predict the top and bottom of the last cycle. Unbelievable!
Let's see the results:
April 2021 (first top of cycle 3):
Actual Price: 64K
99th Quantile Prediction: 84K
Within 20K!
November 2022 (cycle bottom):
Actual Price: 16K
99th Quantile Prediction: 19K
Within 3K!
Remember, people were giving price targets of 280K to 800K in 2020, and the Quantile Model would have predicted the top within 20,000 dollars.
Similarly, people were saying Bitcoin would never break below last cycle's peak (20K), but the quantile model would have predicted the bottom within 3K.
What is more? it also nailed the COVID bottom.
We have no other model with this level of predictive power.
Share To
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink