Institutional outlook on European Central Bank interest rate decision: Focus on Lagarde press conference, further dovish extent limited

BlockBeats News: On January 30th, Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at XTB, a UK securities investment firm, stated that the European Central Bank's 25 basis point interest rate cut this week is certain, so the rate cut will not have a significant impact on the market. The focus will be on Lagarde's press conference. The current market expectation is that there is an 88% probability of a rate cut in March, and there is a high possibility of further rate cuts by June, with a total of 3.5 rate cuts in 2025. Therefore, the extent to which Lagarde further dovish at this meeting is limited. Trump's tariffs are currently the main threat facing the eurozone economy. It may be wise for the European Central Bank to wait for the implementation of tariffs before sending a signal to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. If it takes the initiative to announce at today's meeting that it will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, the ECB will have no tools to deal with the tariffs when they actually come. It is expected that the European Central Bank will follow the example of the Bank of Canada, cut interest rates by 25 basis points and cancel forward guidance. If so, the euro may experience a slight rebound. (Golden Ten)