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Route 2 FI|Jan 28, 2025 20:42
So historically, alt season has typically ended when BTC.D is in the 35%- 40% range.
In 2017, BTC.D bottomed at 35% and in 2021 BTC.D bottomed at 40%.
Worth noting that BTC.D hit 70% in 2021 before it even started trending down. Right now we are sitting 59%.
As I have discussed before I don't think we will have an alt season in the typical sense where you can expect coins to 5-10x left and right. There are simply too many coins now. Instead, we will probably see "sector" outperformance continue, eg. AI, RWA, utility, memes ++
At least for CEX alts, there is much more competition, and the market is way more efficient now. The smartest players (hint: not me) were early to this and understood they had to extract money from the trenches instead (at least in the start it wasn't that much competition here).
We have a coin for everything these days. Most DeFi protocols don't need it, but it's an easy way for founders and investors to cash out, traders like it due to speculation, but in the end they're all forgotten. We want the new shiny thing.
We went from diamond hands to paper hands. Sadly we have become incentivized to think short-term instead of long-term. Not so weird since we have gone from 10,000 altcoins in 2021 to 36 million altcoins today. On track to 100 million coins at the end of 2025...
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